Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1805

   Mesoscale Discussion 1805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Areas affected...western South Dakota into north-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

   Valid 302027Z - 302230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW533.

   DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters continue across northern
   Nebraska/south-central South Dakota, with echo tops to 55 kft. Thus
   far, mode has been messy with lots of storm interactions/mergers.
   Recent gusts to 59 mph were measured with this cluster. It seems
   likely that from within this region, a cluster of storms will
   eventually organize along outflows/cold pools and shift southward,
   with an increasing damaging wind threat through the
   afternoon/evening. Additional storms are developing along the zone
   of surface confluence across western Nebraska and will continue to
   pose potential for large hail and damaging wind.

   Additional thunderstorms are ongoing further northwest across
   western South Dakota. Instability is less favorable in this region
   but sufficient deep layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may
   support potential for another semi-organized cluster to emerge
   through the evening. Local extension of WW533 may be warranted to
   support this potential.

   ..Thornton.. 07/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   42839926 43519951 44160013 45290173 45850328 45770382
               45250423 44140402 43100293 42820284 42080207 41550177
               41070093 41150008 41349899 41619889 42839926 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN