Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1802

   Mesoscale Discussion 1802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Areas affected...central South Dakota into northern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 301757Z - 302000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells to increase with potential for large hail and
   damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway across central
   South Dakota near a region of increasing mid-level ascent over
   spreading the central/northern Plains. Behind morning convection,
   clearing cloud cover has allowed for modest heating with
   temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F.
   This has yielded MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear
   around 20-30 kts and veering wind profiles will support supercell
   modes and potential for large hail and damaging wind initially.
   Through time, guidance suggests that clustering will occur with
   increasing potential for damaging wind into the evening. A watch
   will likely be needed this afternoon to address these potential
   threats.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 07/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42300164 43200188 43920250 44070252 44780249 45100223
               45300135 45280070 44990004 44149967 43919969 42369922
               41529970 41360079 41800148 42300164 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN