Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1799

   Mesoscale Discussion 1799
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Georgia into northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532...

   Valid 292040Z - 292245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind, and perhaps brief
   instances of large hail, continues for portions of northern Georgia
   and southern Florida.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour depict mostly
   short-lived pulse convection and outflow-dominant clusters across
   southern GA. Although much of this activity has struggled to
   maintain intensity (mainly owing to the limited kinematic
   environment as sampled by regional VWPs), several instances of wind
   damage have been noted with the more robust convective cores and
   attendant downdrafts. Regionally, thermodynamic conditions remain
   supportive of intense updrafts (as evident by periodic bursts of
   colder cloud tops in GOES IR imagery and occasional MESH cores) with
   MLCAPE remaining near 2500-3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
   around 8 C/km away from the deeper convective cold pools. A
   combination of continued ascent along a weak front and along
   colliding outflow boundaries should continue to promote scattered,
   but relatively transient, convection capable of damaging wind swaths
   and perhaps brief instances of large hail (most likely near 1 inch).

   Further west into southern Alabama, thunderstorms are beginning to
   develop along the diffuse cold front and within a similar
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment. As with southern GA, storms
   developing across southern AL will most likely exhibit pulse-like
   behavior with some degree of clustering possible. Damaging downburst
   winds will be the primary hazard, though isolated instances of large
   hail will be possible with the more intense updraft pulses. Weaker
   frontal forcing should promote more isolated thunderstorm coverage.

   ..Moore.. 07/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30128117 29888235 30248425 31378709 31998744 32448747
               32728722 32798695 32608640 32358552 32058297 32048125
               31998093 31778092 31488109 31208124 30918134 30628136
               30128117 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN