Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1796

   Mesoscale Discussion 1796
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022049Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across the region this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed in the upper 90s/low
   100s amid strong boundary-layer mixing across the central High
   Plains. This strong mixing has dropped dewpoints in the upper
   40s/low 50s, which is still sufficient for airmass destabilization,
   with little to no convective inhibition remaining on recent
   mesoanalysis. Given that this region is beneath the upper ridge, mid
   to upper level flow is weak. Even so, modest vertical shear is still
   possible across the region given the strong veering from surface
   southeasterlies to modest mid-level northwesterlies. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear around 30 kt. While this
   is likely enough shear for some modest updraft organization, the
   combination of modest buoyancy with this modest shear will likely
   prevent an organization storm mode. However, given the high cloud
   bases and steep low-level lapse rates, a few damaging gusts may
   occur as updrafts collapse.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39180378 38820480 39250493 39910529 41190524 41820530
               42340543 42820574 42930500 42800359 42150255 41020268
               39180378