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Mesoscale Discussion 1793 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...northwest/north-central OK and extreme south KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020551Z - 020745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe gusts of 45-60 mph along with small hail will be possible with a slow east-southeastward-moving cluster along the northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas border area. DISCUSSION...Outflow mergers yielded a rather deep convective cluster with very cold IR cloud top temperatures. While the strength of the wind profile is modest with 20-25 kt mid-level north-northwesterlies per DDC/VNX VWP data, a ribbon of weak easterly low-level flow is situated north of the west/east-oriented portion of the surface front about 3 counties deep into OK. This is aiding in effective bulk shear enhancement, and may support loose organization in this cluster and downstream cells forming within a zone of isentropic ascent. Buffalo, OK, mesonet measured a 56-mph gust at 0530Z. Along the western periphery of the moderate buoyancy plume across northern OK to the MO/AR border area, additional strong to marginally severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours before convection likely wanes towards dawn. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37179922 37119805 36709716 36539673 36279670 35949717 35929824 35869949 36389969 36739972 37179922 |
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