Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1792

   Mesoscale Discussion 1792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern CO into the NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

   Valid 282302Z - 290030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts will continue
   into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing at 23 UTC
   from eastern CO into the NE Panhandle. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and
   effective shear of 30-40 kt (greater with northward extent) will
   continue to support organized storm structures into this evening,
   with a continued threat for isolated hail and severe gusts.
   Potential for organized upscale growth may tend to be limited by
   generally weak large-scale ascent and the expected lack of nocturnal
   low-level jet development. However, moist low-level easterly flow
   may allow for some clustering along expanding outflows, supporting a
   continued localized severe-wind risk as convection spreads eastward
   with time.

   ..Dean.. 07/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37890503 40400402 41560346 42700199 42530154 40790208
               39200224 38500241 37960307 37710410 37890503 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN