Mesoscale Discussion 0179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0815 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...The Ark-La-Miss region Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...33...36... Valid 150115Z - 150315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 33, 36 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be increasing across the Ark-La-Miss region as thunderstorms continue to intensify. Further south, the near-term severe threat appears low across eastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi, though convective development remains possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southeast AR into western MS with latest GOES imagery showing cloud top heights exceeding regional equilibrium levels (37-38 kft). This suggests that storms are beginning to fully realize the thermodynamic environment and should steadily become more organized given the very favorable kinematic profiles depicted by regional VWPs. Consequently, the severe threat may be increasing for parts of southeast AR and western MS. Further south across eastern LA into southwest MS, initial storms that developed during the 22-00 UTC period have since collapsed despite a favorable convective environment. This was possibly due to inadequate forcing for ascent that did not allow storms to sufficiently intensify and become self-sufficient. Since then, additional attempts at convective initiation have been noted, but have been unsuccessful. For the short term, the severe threat remains low, but continued (though weak) isentropic ascent within a very weakly capped and strongly sheared environment (per the 00 UTC LIX sounding) and bubbling cumulus across the region suggest that severe convection remains possible within the next 2-5 hours (though confidence in this potential is limited). ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 32469085 32509126 32669155 32979171 33329180 33639163 34429035 34509003 34448967 34268933 33968919 33548915 33238935 32828986 32609037 32469085
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