Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...Eastern TN/northeast GA into western NC and northern SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 282215Z - 282345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will spread southeastward through the evening. Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with embedded supercells is moving southeastward across eastern TN and western NC as of 22 UTC. A cell near the TN/NC border has recently produced an apparent tornado with a TDS, while other cells have produced occasional reports of wind damage and isolated hail. This storm cluster is expected to spread southeastward ahead of a surface wave currently near the KY/TN/VA border region. The downstream environment remains favorable for supercells, with a warm and very moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg, and increasing deep-layer shear within the northwesterly flow regime, oriented orthogonal to the cold front moving across the region. Some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential is possible with time, though the favorable wind profiles will continue to support embedded supercells, with a threat of isolated hail. With the rich boundary-layer moisture and at least modest low-level hodograph curvature (as noted in recent VWPs from KMRX), some tornado threat could persist into the evening, with both persistent supercells, and with any line-embedded circulations if upscale growth occurs. With the severe threat expected to spread south of WW 526, eventual downstream watch issuance is likely. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35788450 35878436 36328145 36038037 35648009 34728042 34258074 34068164 34188249 34368319 34558367 34798412 35048446 35788450 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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