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| Mesoscale Discussion 1787 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024
Areas affected...Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011906Z - 012100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase as
destabilization in the vicinity of a weak surface low continues.
More intense storms may be capable of severe wind, hail, and perhaps
a short-lived tornado.
DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the late
morning and early afternoon hours across central WI in the vicinity
of a weak surface low. Gradual cloud-top cooling has been noted over
the past 30-60 minutes in GOES IR imagery, implying that convection
is slowly becoming more intense amid continued daytime heating and
gradually cooling mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase along the surface fronts draped to the
south/southeast of the low. Initially discrete cells quickly
developing into clusters given the weak (20-25 knots) deep-layer
wind shear noted in regional VWPs. More intense updraft pulses may
be capable of large hail (generally between 0.75 to 1.25 inches),
and perhaps a brief landspout tornado given ambient low-level
vorticity in place along the surface boundaries and adequate
low-level buoyancy. As convection grows upscale, damaging winds
should become the predominant hazard. Limited wind shear magnitudes
and a high probability for destructive storm interactions should
modulate the overall severe threat. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.
..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45419122 45649088 45849035 45899006 45848971 45738934
45568913 45228888 44148848 43518817 43178798 42948799
42818804 42698820 42658842 42708863 42828937 42888953
43148988 44669103 44949123 45119130 45419122
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