Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1784

   Mesoscale Discussion 1784
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and
   far southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

   Valid 281830Z - 282030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of relatively greater severe wind
   potential have emerged across portions of WW 525. These corridors
   will continue to be the primary axes for severe weather over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar and velocity imagery depicts a
   consolidating cold pool within a loosely organized MCS across far
   eastern PA and northern NJ. This line has reached sufficient
   intensity to produce 50 mph gusts (recently measured at KABE), and
   will continue to reside within a thermodynamic environment adequate
   for MCS maintenance for at least next 1-2 hours (MLCAPE remains near
   1000 J/kg downstream where temperatures are warming into the 80s).
   Marginal deep-layer wind shear and a relatively narrow effective
   warm sector should modulate overall storm intensity, but the
   potential for damaging wind gusts should persist downstream. Local
   expansions of WW 525 have been made to address this potential. 

   Further west, a cluster of thunderstorms across south-central PA has
   displayed signs of a slowly deepening and organizing cold pool.
   Immediately downstream, a narrow corridor of partly cloudy skies has
   allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s and MLCAPE to increase
   to near 1500 J/kg. This more buoyant air mass, coupled with around
   25 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled by KCCX, may promote further
   organization/intensification of the emerging line over the next 1-2
   hours with an attendant threat for damaging winds.

   ..Moore.. 07/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40187886 40327859 40497800 40607742 40597646 40717578
               40957524 41147493 41637441 41697407 41587373 41307357
               40727398 40387417 40107453 39737549 39637611 39637700
               39677782 39807854 39957885 40187886 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN