Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1783

   Mesoscale Discussion 1783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central
   Virginia...and southern Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 281804Z - 282000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.
   Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West
   Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central
   Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid
   80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are
   noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is
   supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally
   perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and
   supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
   potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any
   supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a
   tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat
   limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may
   increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to
   cover this potential.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39547882 39318019 38388081 38048006 36987787 36677684
               36647594 37217539 38307509 38607506 38887566 39547882 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN