Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1780

   Mesoscale Discussion 1780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

   Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...central/southern New
   Jersey...Delaware...Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281608Z - 281815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing within the
   warm air advection zone across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New
   England. Mid-level cloud cover is in place across much of the
   region, which is limiting heating and destabilization. Nonetheless,
   a few areas of more broken cloud cover has allowed for filtered
   heating , with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s across portions
   of New Jersey and Delaware. Strengthening mid-level flow is
   contributing to strong deep layer shear around 30-45 kts across the
   region. As forcing for ascent increases and the cold front to west
   shifts eastward, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
   and intensity near and ahead of the cold front. Primary risks will
   be damaging wind but a few transient supercells may pose potential
   for a tornado.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   39767422 39367450 39107493 38997521 38937583 39027634
               39057651 39447824 39617907 39777994 40527976 41117877
               41317705 41267618 41067547 40867507 40617467 40427443
               40257426 39767422 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN