Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1773

   Mesoscale Discussion 1773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southern and Central
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

   Valid 312218Z - 010015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and large hail is likely to
   continue for several more hours from far northeast South Dakota into
   parts of western and central Minnesota. The severe threat is
   expected to persist past the 00Z expiration of Watch 579, and new
   watch issuance may become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Aberdeen shows a cluster of
   severe storms from east of Aberdeen into far western Minnesota.
   These storms are located along a sharp gradient of instability near
   an area of maximized low-level convergence. Short-term model
   solutions suggest this cluster will continue move eastward into
   parts of west-central Minnesota, and potentially expanding southward
   into south-central Minnesota. According to the RAP, moderate to
   strong instability is present over much central and southern
   Minnesota, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range.
   This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 30 knot range, evident
   on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support a continued severe threat.
   Large hail and severe gusts will be likely with the stronger cells.
   The most intense storms could produce hailstones greater than 2
   inches in diameter, along with isolated wind gusts, perhaps above 65
   knots.

   ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44629724 44889772 45169784 45459778 45729741 46239626
               46529516 46579389 46269314 45749274 45109272 44989273
               44649283 44219312 44089358 44099439 44339578 44629724