Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1773

   Mesoscale Discussion 1773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272316Z - 280115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue through
   dusk.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing early this
   evening from parts of MD northward to near/north of NYC. Despite
   relatively moderate surface temperatures, seasonably cool conditions
   aloft associated with a mid/upper trough over the region are
   supporting moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across
   the region. Deep-layer flow/shear is weak in the NYC region, but a
   tendency for southward cell movement is resulting in a modest
   enhancement to storm-relative inflow and SRH, which may allow a
   threat for downburst-related wind damage to persist through at least
   the early evening. Deep-layer shear is somewhat stronger farther
   south toward the Delmarva region, though still too weak to support
   more than transient storm organization. Localized wind damage will
   remain possible through dusk with storms in this region as well.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38887693 40747549 41917467 41947374 41657317 41007328
               40117380 39417426 38987480 38557530 38477598 38557638
               38887693 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH