Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1769

   Mesoscale Discussion 1769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast NE into
   north-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311921Z - 312115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase this afternoon. Damaging
   gusts and large hail are expected into this evening. Timing is a bit
   uncertain, but a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in
   the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection has persisted for much of the day
   near a surface front draped across NE into northwest KS. Cloudiness
   related to this convection has likely delayed erosion of midlevel
   capping. However, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to
   upper 90s F amid steep midlevel lapse rates and dewpoints in the mid
   70s F. This is resulting in a corridor of strong to extreme
   instability. Effective shear magnitudes continue to increase across
   the region as the upper trough ejects into the northern/central
   Plains. This should also aid in weakening capping with time into
   late afternoon. 

   Recent 7 km CAPPI shows deepening/intensifying cores across
   south-central NE over the past 30-60 minutes. The expectation is
   that convection will gradually increase over the next couple of
   hours. While initial convection may be elevated, large hail and
   damaging gusts will still be possible. With time, the damaging wind
   risk will increase toward evening with a possible bowing MCS
   developing over southeast NE. While timing remains a bit uncertain,
   a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41139899 41649771 41629614 41119584 40349580 39889626
               39459740 39359867 39389943 39529994 39990009 40350012
               40699972 41139899