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Mesoscale Discussion 1768 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1768 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...central MN and far northwest WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579... Valid 311838Z - 312015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579 continues. SUMMARY...A well developed bow echo will continue to produce damaging gusts in the 60-80 mph range across west-central MN. This activity will likely remain severe into portions of northeast/east-central MN and perhaps far northwest WI, and a new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed downstream from WW 579. DISCUSSION...A well developed bow echo is moving across west-central MN within a strongly unstable airmass characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s F and steep midlevel lapse rates. While vertical shear weakens with northward extent, latest mesoanalysis and region VWP data suggest effective shear magnitudes have increased across northeast/east-central MN. Furthermore, VWP data from KABR has measured rear-inflow around 55-70 kt between 3-6 km. Given favorable low-level moisture, strong instability and at least modestly favorable vertical shear, expect this bow echo will continue east/northeast and a downstream watch will likely be needed. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46539681 47369472 47269299 46629205 46149208 45789246 45469365 45299505 45239639 45349678 45869706 46539681 |
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