Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1768

   Mesoscale Discussion 1768
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas and
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271941Z - 272145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across parts of the central High
   Plains appears probable in the coming hours. Deep boundary-layer
   mixing coupled with ample buoyancy will likely yield a few
   strong/severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts. Trends
   will be monitored for the need for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and regional radars show gradual
   deepening of cumulus and shallow convective showers/weak
   thunderstorms across far eastern CO into adjacent portions of
   northwest KS and southwest NE. This activity appears to largely be
   driven by very weak ascent along and north of a stalled baroclinic
   zone and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance. Residual capping is
   slowly eroding across the region as temperatures breach 100 F. As
   temperatures continue to warm, thunderstorm coverage and intensity
   may increase, though confidence on overall storm coverage is limited
   given the weak forcing for ascent. Regardless, thunderstorms that
   can develop will likely mature within a thermodynamic environment
   featuring MLCAPE values upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg and deep
   boundary-layer mixing up to 2-3 km, which should favor robust
   updrafts and accelerating downdrafts. Consequently, strong to severe
   winds will be possible, and modest deep-layer wind shear may support
   some storm organization and the potential for loosely organized
   clusters. Limited confidence on thunderstorm coverage casts
   uncertainty on the need for watch issuance, but trends will continue
   to be monitored.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39210087 38890243 39090288 39440318 39940301 40540186
               40730121 40810067 40450013 40079985 39789984 39609998
               39370031 39210087 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH