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Mesoscale Discussion 1766 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1766 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311719Z - 311915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Re-intensification of a weak MCS appears to be underway across southeast Illinois and southern Indiana. The threat for severe winds may increase over the next few hours downstream into Kentucky. A watch may be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-45 minutes, GOES one-minute imagery shows gradual but persistent convective development along the leading edge of an outflow boundary associated with a weak MCS across southern IN. Additionally, steadily intensifying convection is noted across southeast IL. Temperatures ahead of the southeast IL convection (and immediately behind the primary outflow boundary) remain in the low 80s, which should still support buoyant parcels rooted near the surface per modified RAP forecast soundings. This also implies that the deeper cold pool remains further northwest across southeast IL where temperatures are in the mid-70s. These trends suggest that gradual re-intensification of the MCS may be underway. West/southwesterly flow across the lower OH River Valley is advecting a plume of higher theta-e air (characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s with mid-70s dewpoints) east/northeastward immediately downstream of the MCS. The west/southwesterly low-level winds, coupled with steady 25-30 knot northwesterly flow aloft, are supporting effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-30 knots. Given an improving thermodynamic environment and adequate wind shear, the recent intensification trend should continue with an attendant increase in severe wind potential (with an isolated large hail threat with more discrete leading cells) over the next several hours as the MCS continues to move generally southeast. It is unclear how far southeast this threat will persist given a residual cold pool from prior convection across eastern KY and northeast TN, but watch issuance may be necessary as the MCS continues to re-intensify. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39848727 39208495 38928451 38368442 37818445 37288470 36918489 36698514 36568549 36628585 37918773 38298815 38518835 38698843 38978845 39208841 39408830 39678803 39798772 39848727 |
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