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Mesoscale Discussion 1764 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1764 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...extreme southeast IA...northeast MO...and west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311601Z - 311730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic hail to around 1 inch diameter and locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph are possible the next couple of hours. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection in a modest low-level warm advection regime will likely continue the next couple of hours across the discussion area. The airmass directly downstream from thunderstorm clusters across southeast Iowa has been impacted by overnight/morning convection. Temperatures behind the outflow from earlier convection are currently in the upper 60s to low 70s. While modest instability remains given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, low-level inhibition will likely remain as the airmass only slowly recovers through early afternoon. Current expectation is that modest instability but favorable vertical shear will continue to support isolated strong (but likely elevated) convection. This activity will mainly pose a risk for hail up to 1 inch diameter and locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40929190 40429092 39779021 39379028 39149058 39309129 39749224 40139286 40519322 40779316 40959309 41029278 40929190 |
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