Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1763

   Mesoscale Discussion 1763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0956 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311456Z - 311630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally gusty winds of 40-60 mph are possible across parts
   of central Indiana through early afternoon. Severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms near the IL/IN border will continue
   to track east/southeast the next few hours. Overall structure and
   organization of this activity has decreased compared to
   overnight/earlier this morning. Measured wind gusts with this
   activity have mostly been in the 30-40 kt range, with a couple
   locally higher gusts. The downstream environment remains weakly to
   moderately capped with deep-layer flow relatively weak (less than 30
   kt effective shear). With continued heating, inhibition should
   gradually decrease. However, instability and shear are expected to
   remain somewhat modest. While some minor intensification is
   possible, timing and coverage of any greater severe risk is
   uncertain. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not expected in the
   short term, but trends will be monitored and watch issuance is
   possible later this morning or afternoon if trends increase
   sufficiently.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40608781 40548737 40188620 39888581 39688583 39328603
               39158633 39228677 39308726 39458774 39668799 40088805
               40358801 40608781