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Mesoscale Discussion 1761 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...south-central/southeast IA...northeast MO...west-central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576... Valid 310731Z - 310930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 576 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and localized damaging wind threat in the greater Des Moines metro area may shift southeast through dawn, with increasing potential for severe gusts. An additional severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed to the east-southeast of WW 576. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely congealed over the greater Des Moines metro area within the exit region of a southwesterly low-level jet. This convection has only produced reported hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter, despite deep convective cores characterized by echo tops to 60 kft and cold cloud-top temperatures in IR imagery. Given how deep this cluster has become, and with additional cells forming along its southern flank, a strengthening surface cold pool should develop over the next couple hours. Within the prevailing westerly mid-level flow regime per DMX VWP data, this should yield a southeastward movement to the cluster along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient. Potential acceleration would yield a corresponding increase in the severe gust threat, that should spread southeast towards a portion of the Mid-MO Valley later this morning. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41649457 42029423 41879356 41459189 40799054 40319049 40129071 39909118 39989213 40399331 41429445 41649457 |
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