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Mesoscale Discussion 1759 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310417Z - 310615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation may occur in the 04-07z period across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. If this scenario occurs, parameters would suggest a risk of large hail and damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch could be needed. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows very moist low-level conditions in place across eastern NE/western IA, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. This, combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates are yielding large CAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg. Low-level convergence is weak, but a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across the region, likely aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. 00z CAM guidance varies on placement and timing of this development, but recent IR images indicate patches of CU/TCU in the region that could mature into thunderstorms within the next few hours. Sufficient westerly flow aloft will help to organize storms into rotating/bowing structures. If this scenario unfolds, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. ..Hart.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42709800 42419530 41879309 40989306 40819422 41189667 41729808 42219835 42709800 |
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