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Mesoscale Discussion 1756 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 310109Z - 310315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some potential for the evolution of an increasingly organized cluster of storms with strong wind gusts exists across middle Tennessee late this evening. DISCUSSION...Conglomerating convective outflow included notable 2 hourly surface pressures rises in excess of 4 mb in the 00Z surface observation from Owensboro Ky. There has been some intensification of convection on the leading edge of this outflow, which has been advancing southeastward around 25-30 kts, in line with the similar magnitude northwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow. The most prominent recent cloud top cooling has been focused along the southwestern flank of the outflow now approaching the Hopkinsville KY vicinity. This is where stronger south-southwesterly system relative low-level inflow of unstable air appears focused, and where large-scale forcing for ascent associated with low-level convergence and warm advection may be enhanced near the intersection of the forward propagating outflow and the stalled remnants of prior convective outflow. It is possible that this could still promote the development of a more organized cluster of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts through 04-05Z, along the stalled boundary extending across the Nashville vicinity of middle Tennessee. ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... LAT...LON 36978719 37218655 37008634 35578561 35078665 35938734 36718801 36978719 |
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