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Mesoscale Discussion 1753 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western into south-central South Dakota and far north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572... Valid 302332Z - 310100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572. DISCUSSION...A few discrete supercells are ongoing from portions of west-central SD to north-central NE -- generally focused immediately ahead of a north/south-oriented dryline/lee trough. These storms have been producing severe hail ranging from 1.25-2.00 inches in diameter. Middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and steep deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to strong surface-based instability, which combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will support a continued increase in updraft intensity during the next few hours. Generally weak large-scale and mesoscale ascent will likely favor a continued discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode, with large to very large hail and locally severe gusts the main concerns. Currently, the most intense discrete supercell is turning/deviating to the south-southeast across southern Ziebach County, SD. With minimal inhibition and the aforementioned shear/instability downstream across southwest/south-central SD, this is the most favorable corridor for very large hail (up to around 2.5 inches) and severe gusts upwards of 75 mph. ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43080119 43650185 44100221 44320226 44750206 44870172 44740141 44480115 44240099 43890071 43469994 43089936 42739913 42409950 42349998 42470041 43080119 |
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