Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1750

   Mesoscale Discussion 1750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of VA/MD into western/central NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270104Z - 270300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
   the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms across VA have gradually
   intensified this evening, with short-term guidance suggesting a
   continued increase in storm coverage with time. While thermodynamic
   profiles are not particularly favorable (with weak lapse rates and
   rather cool surface temperatures), seasonably strong northwesterly
   mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the 00Z RNK sounding) associated
   with a mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will provide
   sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm structures. 

   Relatively organized multicells and perhaps a couple of marginal
   supercells may evolve with time across the region. With marginal
   thermodynamic profiles and the onset of nocturnal cooling, storms
   may struggle to achieve severe intensity. However, any organized
   cells or clusters could pose a threat of locally damaging wind
   through the evening, while a brief tornado and small to near-severe
   hail cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35738124 38047892 39277781 39317720 39077660 38627639
               37587704 36067843 35487938 35357980 35348040 35438095
               35738124 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN