Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1733

   Mesoscale Discussion 1733
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513...

   Valid 252302Z - 260100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Destructive wind gusts from 75 to 90 mph and large hail
   are possible as the convective cluster across central South Dakota
   continues to intensify and grow upscale.

   DISCUSSION...A convective cluster continues to evolve across central
   South Dakota. This cluster is just now beginning to interact with a
   reservoir of ample low-level moisture in place across
   eastern/southeastern South Dakota. Recent surface analysis reveals
   numerous observations with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, with a
   few in far southeast South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska
   reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This copious low-level moisture,
   in tandem with temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s, is supporting
   extreme buoyancy, with mesoanalysis estimating over 3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. General expectation is for this portion of the cluster to
   intensify as it continues eastward over the next several hours,
   potentially evolving into a significant wind-producing MCS over the
   next few hours. Primary hazard will be very strong, destructive wind
   gusts from 75 to 90 mph, with the strongest gusts more likely after
   00Z.

   A discrete supercell continues to progress northeastward within the
   northern portion of the cluster over Hyde County South Dakota. Given
   its mature and organized character, expectation is for this
   supercell to persist for at least the next hour, with its motion
   potentially becoming more east-northeastward to eastward as it grows
   upscale. Large hail up to 2" in diameter and strong gusts over 75
   mph are possible with this cell.

   ..Mosier.. 07/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43829976 44919964 45229884 44939762 43729703 43079771
               43180002 43829976 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN