Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Nevada into northwest Utah and southeast
Idaho
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252052Z - 252245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected within the
next couple of hours across northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, and
southeast Idaho. The primary risk will be severe wind gusts
associated with intense downbursts; however, this threat should be
sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Building cumulus and occasional lightning flashes are
noted across northeast NV into far west/northwest UT as temperatures
warm into the low to mid 90s and diurnal orographic ascent continues
to increase. Based on recent 18 UTC LKN and SLC RAOBs, any lingering
inhibition should be eroded as temperatures exceed 95 F, which
should support sustained deep convection in the coming hours.
Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 50s) is
supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, which should
be sufficient for a few more intense updrafts. Observed dewpoint
depressions on the order of 40-45 F also hint that boundary-layer
depth is increasing to around 2 km, which should favor downdraft
accelerations near the ground, especially with the stronger
updrafts/heavier precipitation cores. Latest high-res guidance hints
that peak downburst wind gusts on the order of 55-70 mph will be
possible as thunderstorm coverage gradually increases through early
evening, however, fairly modest deep-layer wind shear should promote
poorly organized, outflow-dominant convection with limited longevity
and only sporadic coverage of severe winds.
..Moore/Smith.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...
LAT...LON 39521458 39991577 40281596 40631601 40911602 42221507
42641446 43131334 43291278 43371227 43281198 43081151
42871139 42541137 42251156 40071353 39681393 39531428
39521458
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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