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| Mesoscale Discussion 1731 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central North Dakota and north-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 292349Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and large hail remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken line segment has shown signs of recent intensification across portions of northwestern SD into southwestern ND as of 2340Z -- with several deep/embedded rotating cores along the consolidating cold pool. Over the next hour or so, this trend may continue as the convective line continues eastward. This will be aided by moderate surface-based pre-convective instability (increasing with eastward extent) and around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KBIS VWP) with a favorable line-normal component to the gust front. Given steep deep-layer lapse rates ahead of the line, severe gusts upwards of 65-75 mph will be possible, along with isolated large hail. Ahead of the line, a more discrete supercell mode persists, and these storms will pose the greater risk of large to very large hail in the near-term. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45220239 45730213 46580183 46740168 46860046 46760006 46419980 45559991 45000037 44830083 44810183 44950230 45220239 |
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