|
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 | |
< Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...far southeastern Montana eastward to the central Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292038Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is occurring from far southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2 hours. WW issuance may be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area. The convection is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North Dakota/South Dakota border. Storm development -- though overall coverage appears likely to remain widely scattered -- is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. Though low-level flow remains weak across the area, moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for organized/rotating updrafts. Presuming sufficient storm coverage evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells will likely warrant WW issuance -- perhaps within the next hour or so. ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950 43890141 44260364 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |