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Mesoscale Discussion 1726 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291938Z - 292145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a coherent line can become organized. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35568771 35908776 36088729 36158658 35998604 35988587 34858414 34668390 34418384 34108392 33808427 33728463 33678503 33688555 33698611 33918650 35568771 |
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