Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1726

   Mesoscale Discussion 1726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far southeastern North Dakota into far
   northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242349Z - 250115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An ongoing MCS may continue downstream of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 512 into far western MN. Severe gusts will be the
   main threat, though a couple of tornadoes or instances of severe
   hail are also possible. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if
   confidence increases in the current MCS persisting.

   DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS has organized across central
   into southeastern ND, and should continue to propagate southeast
   amid a favorable deep-layer shear/buoyancy parameter space. 23Z
   mesoanalysis depicts over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
   effective bulk shear (aligned roughly normal to current MCS
   leading-line orientation) preceding the MCS downstream of the
   ongoing WW into far west-central MN. However, appreciable MLCINH
   also exists downstream, so MCS persistence is unclear. However, if
   MLCINH proves to be a lesser concern, an MCS may progress into MN
   with severe gusts, and a WW issuance would be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45899862 46419769 46649642 46589546 46319498 45899497
               45589538 45409600 45419681 45599794 45899862 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN