Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1722

   Mesoscale Discussion 1722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northwestern into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290149Z - 290345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated long-lived supercell has been producing large
   hail and locally severe wind gusts along its path now approaching
   the Hayes KS vicinity.  This may persist into the 9-10 PM CDT time
   frame, before a rapid weakening commences.

   DISCUSSION...Within a favorable lower/mid-tropospheric warm
   advection regime, near the northeastern periphery of mid/upper
   ridging shifting east of the Rockies, an isolated supercell has been
   maintained for a couple of hours now.  Despite the presence of
   lingering inhibition beneath warm/warming mid-levels, strong shear
   beneath a broadly anticyclonic upper jet (including 50-70 kt around
   300 mb) nosing across the Colorado Rockies through northwestern
   Kansas probably has contributed to the sustenance of this cell,
   coupled with persistent moderate south/southeasterly inflow of
   unstable air.  

   Inflow appears to have been characterized by CAPE on the order of
   1500 J/kg, as the storm has taken on an increasing rightward
   propagation toward the Hayes KS vicinity.  However, based on
   observational data and objective analysis, it appears that it may
   begin to acquire at least somewhat drier and less unstable inflow
   within the next hour or two.  Coupled with increasing inhibition
   associated with the loss of daytime heating, the cell seems likely
   to weaken, and weakening/dissipation may be fairly rapid once this
   begins.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39300008 38929892 38689886 38619947 38890026 39300008