Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1720

   Mesoscale Discussion 1720
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Georgia and Carolina Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241815Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging downburst winds is gradually
   increasing across portions of the Georgia and Carolina coast. This
   threat is expected to remain sufficiently sporadic and transient to
   preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing along the
   NC/SC coast along a weak cold front as temperatures continue to warm
   into the low 90s under partly cloudy skies. Continued ascent along
   the cold front and along a sharpening sea-breeze boundary through
   late afternoon will promote additional thunderstorms in the coming
   hours. Deep-layer wind shear across the region remains very weak
   (per regional VWPs), and will continue to predominantly favor
   pulse-convection and perhaps poorly organized clusters. However,
   filtered daytime heating is contributing to low-level lapse rates on
   the order of 8 C/km through the lowest 1-2 km that may promote
   downdraft accelerations near the ground. Consequently, some
   potential will exist for strong downbursts (featuring max winds of
   40-60 mph) through late afternoon. This potential will be greatest
   where dewpoint depressions can be maximized - namely across far
   eastern GA into southern SC where more limited cloud cover has
   allowed temperatures to warm into the 90s with ~20 F dewpoint
   depressions. Given the isolated and transient nature of the threat,
   watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   32368028 32138066 31908087 31878118 32008167 32328183
               32698182 33068169 33528122 33878059 33997989 34037938
               33987901 33867870 33697868 33487895 33087913 32607988
               32368028 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH