Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1715

   Mesoscale Discussion 1715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast UT...Southern WY...Northwest CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271906Z - 272200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph
   are possible across northeast Utah, southern Wyoming, and northwest
   Colorado this afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a large area of
   building cumulus from central/northeast UT into northwest CO and
   southern WY. This cumulus is building along and just ahead of a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough moving into the region. Convective
   initiation has already occurred in the few places, with thunderstorm
   coverage expected to continue increasing over the next few hours as
   the airmass heats and destabilizes, and the shortwave continues
   eastward. 

   Overall buoyancy will likely remain modest (i.e. around 500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE), and the storm mode is expected to remain multicellular.
   Even so, high cloud bases and moderate mid-level flow could still
   result in a few strong, negatively buoyant downdrafts capable of
   gusts from 45 to 65 mph across the region this afternoon and
   evening.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   39100799 38290945 38861116 40851154 42670864 42490545
               40680605 39100799