Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1714

   Mesoscale Discussion 1714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Middle Texas Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231652Z - 231815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging/severe wind gusts may occur as ongoing
   convection moves onshore over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite imagery depicts a couple of
   ongoing thunderstorms just offshore of the Middle Texas coastline.
   Downstream surface observations indicate that temperatures have
   warmed into the low-90s F, with dewpoints in the 70s to near 80.
   Aided by enhanced northeasterly flow on the southwestern periphery
   of Tropical Storm Bertha (with 40-45 kts sampled at 4-5 km AGL per
   the CRP VAD profile), high PW (2+ inches), and steepening low-level
   lapse rates, an isolated threat for damaging/severe wind gusts may
   manifest along the Middle Texas coastline as these thunderstorms
   move ashore over the next hour or two. Watch issuance is not
   anticipated at this time, but additional thunderstorm
   activity/development later this afternoon will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

   LAT...LON   28679552 28839531 28949530 29029539 29089580 29089604
               29049637 28909675 28669714 28499730 28299738 28069733
               27899720 27859702 27889687 28009676 28199650 28429607
               28679552 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH