Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262306Z - 270100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, accompanied by potential for large hail and some risk for a brief tornado. This is not anticipated to require a severe weather watch, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air, a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River Valley has become characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold front. Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway. Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode inhibition further into early evening. However, based on the various model output, it remains unclear whether this will become supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage. Even so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to intensify. One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the question, in addition to a risk for large hail. ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669 48439677
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1714

26
Jul