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| Mesoscale Discussion 1713 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262221Z - 262345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some severe gusts are possible as storms move off of the
higher terrain into an environment characterized by hot and dry
boundary-layer profiles. Due to the isolated nature of this
convection, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Storms that developed this afternoon on the Mogollon
Rim have begun to move into southern Arizona and the lower terrain,
where hot and dry boundary layer profiles will support gusty
thunderstorm outflow capable of 60 MPH winds.
The greatest chances for severe wind gusts will be with the most
intense convective cores moving towards the eastern portions of
Phoenix, where some loose organization of outflow into a bowing
segment has been observed.
Further southeast near Tuscon, surface observations show cooler and
drier air, resulting in a relative minima of ML/MUCAPE. Any storms
that move into this environment may decrease in intensity more
quickly than western portions of the risk area.
..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 07/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34061133 33931110 33861099 33861084 33841070 33801051
33771024 33571020 33351016 33081028 32731050 32221087
32031113 31951157 32021189 32161213 32501225 32891226
33181217 33701200 34001172 34161153 34061133
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