Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1709

   Mesoscale Discussion 1709
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221740Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will bring the
   potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A prefrontal band of precipitation with embedded
   thunderstorms remains ongoing across southern Virginia as of early
   afternoon, with an area of denser cloud cover extending downstream
   from this precipitation along the VA/NC border. This ongoing
   thunderstorm activity is expected to spread eastward through this
   afternoon, eventually interacting with greater buoyancy across far
   eastern NC where dewpoints are in the upper 70s F. Additional
   development is also anticipated along/ahead of an approaching cold
   front across central and eastern Virginia where a relative lack of
   cloud cover has allowed for stronger surface heating. This activity
   will occur along the southern periphery of stronger mid/upper flow,
   with effective shear of 30-40+ kts (greater with northward extent)
   supporting a mixed mode of clusters and supercells. The primary risk
   with this activity will be for isolated damaging wind gusts, with
   the greatest potential likely to exist where low-level lapse rates
   can appreciably steepen. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out
   given modestly enhanced low-level flow (~30 kts sampled by the
   AKQ/MHX VAD profiles). However, veered low-level flow across the
   region, poor mid-level lapse rates, and the likelihood that
   low-level lapse rates will be at least somewhat tempered by the
   aforementioned cloud cover suggest that convective
   severity/intensity are likely to remain limited. Thus, watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37417886 37977838 38507757 38697702 38747588 38647511
               38487495 38227501 37577542 37187569 36947580 36647579
               36317561 36097556 35917577 35707689 35627859 35707904
               35967931 36387933 36697931 37417886 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH