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Mesoscale Discussion 1709 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Lower Deserts of Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252325Z - 260130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are gradually expanding in areal coverage over the higher terrain early this evening. This activity has developed within a weak-flow regime that favors southward propagation toward lower-desert regions. Latest diagnostic data suggests a modest corridor of MLCAPE exists from Maricopa county to near the international border. Convection that spreads into this airmass may generate gusty winds as PW values are in excess of 1.5 inches, and sub-cloud (3km AGL) RH is fairly low. At this time current thinking is the severe gust potential may be a bit too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will continue to monitor for convective organization. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31871308 33561268 33401101 32490979 31261023 31871308 |
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