Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1705

   Mesoscale Discussion 1705
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central VA...southern MD...and the
   Eastern Shore

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

   Valid 220239Z - 220345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will continue
   spreading eastward from east-central Virginia to the Eastern Shore
   tonight -- within Severe Thunderstorms Watch 509.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KLWX shows a
   north/south-oriented line segment tracking eastward across southern
   MD, with additional less-organized multicell clusters moving
   eastward across east-central VA. The primary severe risk will be
   associated with the line segment as it overspreads southern MD and
   the Eastern Shore over the next couple of hours, aided by an MCV,
   established cold pool, and around 45 kt of line-orthogonal 0-6 km
   shear (per LWX VWP). Given the linear mode, damaging gusts will
   continue to be the main concern. The storms farther south over
   east-central VA are generally in a less favorable air mass, though a
   robust low-level jet (40-50 kt sampled by AKQ VWP) impinging on the
   area will conditionally support embedded rotation and the potential
   for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado for the next hour or
   so.

   ..Weinman.. 07/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38097783 38807676 38927620 38847549 38557507 38327512
               37987532 37657585 37557636 37537732 37607770 37807787
               38097783 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH