Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1704

   Mesoscale Discussion 1704
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

   Valid 220104Z - 220300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of greater damaging wind potential appears to
   be developing over middle Tennessee, including the Nashville
   metropolitan area. Gusts up to 60-70 mph appear possible.

   DISCUSSION...A line of intense storms has evolved over northern
   middle TN as of 01Z, with KOHX base data sampling periodic
   rear-inflow notches and channels of enhanced inbound winds. The 00Z
   BNA sounding is likely representative of the inflow environment,
   featuring MLCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg and around 40 kt of effective
   bulk shear, which is aligned largely perpendicular to the
   thunderstorm line. While low-level lapse rates aren't particularly
   steep, the high instability/high PW environment will promote
   water-loaded downdrafts capable of 60-70 mph wind gusts as the line
   develops south-southeast through middle TN.

   Extrapolation of current storm motion takes the line to the southern
   fringe of the watch area by 0230Z. The watch may need to be locally
   extended in area prior to that time.

   ..Mead.. 07/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35888692 36518698 36658666 36648594 36328556 35728547
               35418567 35328629 35438679 35888692 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN