Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1701

   Mesoscale Discussion 1701
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241943Z - 242045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase throughout the
   afternoon, with severe wind gusts possible. Watch issuance is
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows convective development
   occurring along the Rim and adjacent mountains in southeast Arizona.
   Strong surface heating across the region is resulting in
   temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s F. Ample low-level
   moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the
   upper 40s and low 50s F near the Rim and near 60 F farther
   southwest, along the aforementioned heating is resulting in rapid
   destabilization, with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Despite generally
   weak shear, strong low-level lapse rates of 9-9.5 C/km
   characteristic of inverted-V profiles will promote strong outflow
   winds that should exceed severe limits once storms mature and become
   more widespread. With the early onset the convective development and
   supportive thermal profiles, storms are expected to last for several
   hours and eventually congeal into a few clusters, prolonging the
   threat over region. Given this anticipated time/space coverage,
   watch issuance is likely.

   ..Karstens/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31730917 31270950 31271107 31921304 34551297 35451189
               35371075 34320915 32760909 31730917