Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1700

   Mesoscale Discussion 1700
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0527 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

   Valid 212227Z - 220000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts and
   possibly a brief tornado is evident in southeastern Virginia for the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Along the southern edge of ongoing convection, a
   surface-based thunderstorm is evolving along an east/west-oriented
   differential heating zone in southeastern VA. Ahead of this
   activity, a warm/moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints) is contributing to
   moderate surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of
   0-6 km shear and a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (sampled by
   the AKQ VWP), is yielding a locally favorable corridor for organized
   clusters and supercell structures. The primary concern continues to
   be damaging wind gusts, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
   given the aforementioned low-level shear.

   ..Weinman.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   36617670 36787735 37037759 37307743 37367725 37277670
               36837592 36607608 36617670 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH