Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1698

   Mesoscale Discussion 1698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern NJ

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 507...

   Valid 212142Z - 212315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 507 continues.

   SUMMARY...A locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts is
   evident in southern New Jersey for the next hour or two -- within
   Tornado Watch 507.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are tracking eastward across
   far southwestern NJ, with some low/midlevel rotation evident in the
   last 15 minutes or so. These storms are moving into a corridor of
   strong heating/destabilization of a very moist PBL (upper 70s
   dewpoints). This, combined with a long/mostly straight hodograph
   (around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear per DIX VWP), will favor a continued
   risk of organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts
   as they track eastward across southern NJ during the next hour or
   two. While low-level shear is not particularly strong, the ample PBL
   moisture could support a brief tornado with any embedded
   mesovortex/supercell structures.

   ..Weinman.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...

   LAT...LON   39647539 40107480 40197446 40127406 39967394 39217434
               38867476 38907514 39357554 39647539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN