Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1697

   Mesoscale Discussion 1697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

   Areas affected...Far eastern North Carolina and far southeastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231831Z - 232030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind gusts may accompany a thunderstorm
   cluster or two near the coastal region of NC and VA over the next
   couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite and radar imagery
   indicates a small area of thunderstorms developing along a sea
   breeze. Surface observations near this area continue to suggest a
   very moist, moderately unstable, uninhibited boundary layer in
   place. Although modest deep layer shear will likely limit overall
   thunderstorm organization, a few multicellular clusters will be
   possible near the aforementioned instability axis extending
   southwest to northeast immediately inland. Given the considerable
   deep layer of moisture present within mostly unidirectional
   southwesterlies, precipitation loading and deepening cold pools
   could support localized damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours.
   A WW is not anticipated.

   ..Barnes/Smith.. 07/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36117565 35427657 35107730 34897791 34917812 35277822
               35687806 36117771 36427729 37237701 37537674 37597627
               37217596 36117565