Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1695

   Mesoscale Discussion 1695
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0433 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222133Z - 222300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm may remain capable of severe hail
   for a few hours this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence in
   storm evolution is low but a WW is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
   thunderstorms have developed along a subtle confluence boundary
   stretching from near Minot ND to International Falls MN. Aided by
   weak forcing for ascent from a subtle passing shortwave trough,
   these storms have recently intensified with reports of measured
   severe hail. Warm surface temperatures and upper 60s to low 70s F
   dewpoints are supporting strong destabilization (3000+ J/kg of
   MLCAPE) despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. Vertical shear,
   as sampled by area VADs, is modestly favorable for a sustained
   severe risk around 25-30 kt. However, some mid and upper-level
   enhancement form the passing shortwave may allow for brief
   organization and transient supercell structures with the strongly
   buoyant updrafts. 

   Given the degree of buoyancy and the potential for at least
   short-lived storm organization, the risk for severe hail (1-2 in)
   and an isolated damaging gust may persist for a couple hours late
   this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence in organized
   convective evolution is low as the background forcing away from the
   boundary remains limited. This suggests a WW is unlikely, but
   convective trends will continue to be monitored should a locally
   greater severe risk evolve.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48229618 47789664 47609744 47599779 47609811 47659868
               47809914 48079950 48439955 48809910 48969815 48939737
               48839664 48829653 48499613 48229618