Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1693

   Mesoscale Discussion 1693
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Areas affected...Central and eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221832Z - 222030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through
   late this afternoon across portions of central and eastern NC.
   Damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado late this afternoon, will
   be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery suggest an
   increase in moist convection is ongoing along a weakly convergent
   sea breeze and within subtle DCVA. This area is also under a belt of
   relatively stronger mid to upper level southwesterly flow, and near
   a moderate instability axis extending southwest to northeast.
   Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s combined with temperatures in the
   mid to upper 80s are contributing to MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. As
   destabilization continues through this afternoon, and effective
   shear remains around 30-35 kt, a few organized updrafts are
   anticipated. In addition, a modest increase in low-level flow late
   this afternoon near the northeastern NC coastline may result in some
   enhanced low-level helicity and the opportunity for a brief tornado.
   The main concern, however, will be damaging wind gusts via
   precipitation loading especially with any supercells that manage to
   develop and/or clusters contributing to deepening cold pools. Given
   the expected severe weather coverage, a WW is not anticipated at
   this time.

   ..Barnes/Smith.. 07/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   34327849 34267878 34647918 35657920 36547882 36557626
               36547582 36107566 35927570 35077655 34847709 34327849