Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1691

   Mesoscale Discussion 1691
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New
   Mexico...and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212010Z - 212245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
   across the area this afternoon and evening posing an initial threat
   for hail and eventually evolving into a wind threat.  The severe
   threat appears too marginal and isolated to warrant a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have already initiated across
   the area ahead of a southward-moving midlevel shortwave trough. 
   While instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and shear (effective
   bulk shear around 25 knots) are modest, initial multicell modes may
   support hail (0.75-1.25 in) and convective gusts (45-60 mph). 
   Eventually cold pool mergers are expected to lead to some degree of
   upscale growth, especially across northeastern New Mexico, where
   isolated severe gusts (55-65 mph) may be possible if an organized
   convective cluster develops.  A severe thunderstorm watch is
   unlikely given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe
   threat.

   ..Jirak/Smith.. 07/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35200520 36190528 37570525 37660523 38350518 38890510
               39210483 39250412 38900338 38600278 38130232 37010198
               36280186 35480188 35100202 34910237 34730315 34620362
               34740493 35200520