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Mesoscale Discussion 1689 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Front Range of Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210219Z - 210315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A pair of supercells moving south along the I-25 corridor may pose a risk for hail and severe gusts for a couple more hours tonight. The longevity and spatial extent of the threat is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, a pair of supercells have evolved within the upslope flow regime across eastern CO. These storms have produced reports of measured severe hail and wind gusts over the last hour. Extrapolation places these storms near Denver in the next hour. Around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-40 kt of northerly deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for storm organization this evening. Some risk for severe hail and damaging gusts could continue as these storms track along and south of the Metro this evening. A complicating factor is the presence of westward surging outflow from prior convection over the adjacent plains. With the loss of diurnal heating and cooler surface temperatures post outflow, surface stabilization is expected. However, it remains unclear how long it will take for the decrease in instability to affect these storms. Convective trends are being monitored, but the severe risk could persist for another couple of hours in and south of the Denver metro before weakening later this evening. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40310533 40460510 40410478 40200442 39690435 39050461 39010472 38950511 39250538 40180552 40310533 |
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