Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1687

   Mesoscale Discussion 1687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201957Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity across eastern Wyoming and Colorado and the Nebraska
   Panhandle through the afternoon and evening hours posing a threat of
   severe hail and wind gusts.  Given the isolated nature of the
   threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...With strong heating across the region, thunderstorms
   have initiated ahead of a weak midlevel impulse moving southeastward
   into northern Wyoming (per latest water vapor imagery).  These
   storms are developing in an environment characterized by ~1000 J/kg
   of MLCAPE and ~25 knots of effective shear, supporting primarily
   multicell storms with some short-lived supercell characteristics. 
   As such, severe hail and damaging winds may be possible, but the
   threat is expected to remain too marginal and isolated to warrant a
   watch.

   ..Jirak/Smith.. 07/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39530440 40280498 41600557 42660562 43070547 43410485
               43280394 42860305 42310252 41010225 40070234 39520249
               39250317 39190399 39530440