Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1685

   Mesoscale Discussion 1685
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest Nebraska and extreme
   northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555...557...

   Valid 200026Z - 200130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555, 557
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The most favorable corridor for a continued risk for
   severe hail and wind appears to be over parts of southwest Nebraska
   and extreme northeast Colorado through at least 02Z.

   DISCUSSION...The greatest severe risk appears to be focused across
   portions of southwest Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeast
   Colorado through around 02Z. Here, temperatures in the lower 90s
   amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints (lower with westward extent) are
   still yielding moderate surface-based instability -- given steep
   midlevel lapse rates (see LBF 00Z sounding). Additionally, regional
   VWP shows around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear (with modest low-level
   hodograph curvature), which will favor a continuation of
   semi-discrete supercells, capable of producing hail around 2 inches
   in diameter and gusts upwards of 75 mph.

   ..Weinman.. 07/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41000098 40770085 40410061 40140071 40100123 40350205
               40610252 41050299 41370315 41680321 41790298 41800268
               41590239 41450209 41420172 41390137 41230112 41000098