Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1682

   Mesoscale Discussion 1682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far eastern Colorado into extreme
   southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191830Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
   afternoon. 60-75 mph gusts are the main concern, though a couple
   instances of 1+ inch hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will
   eventually be needed pending favorable convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity across
   eastern CO into NE, where strong surface heating has supported
   temperatures rising into the upper 80s/low 90s F amid low 60s F
   dewpoints. MLCINH continues to erode as the boundary layer deepens,
   supporting the potential for robust thunderstorm development.
   Regional VADs and 18Z mesoanalysis show hodographs with slight
   low-level curvature and mid-level elongation, favoring the
   development of transient supercells merging into line segments
   through the afternoon. Low-level lapse rates have steepened to 8+
   C/km, and they may steepen further through the afternoon, supporting
   severe gust potential (some of which may approach 75 mph).

   Some questions remain in terms of exactly when an uptick in greater
   storm coverage will occur. Nonetheless, a WW issuance will
   eventually be needed once these details become more clear.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39980267 40330205 40410120 40139996 39769938 39259910
               38689925 38409966 38330040 38480121 38880206 39170234
               39980267