Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1681

   Mesoscale Discussion 1681
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

   Areas affected...portions of east-central Colorado and northeast New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182201Z - 182330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms will likely continue
   this evening with some potential for clustering. Isolated damaging
   gusts and/or small hail are possible. A WW is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...East of a large ridge of high pressure centered over
   the western CONUS, diurnal heating amidst weak upslope flow has
   allowed for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of
   the central and southern Rockies this afternoon. Surface
   temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F and dewpoints in the 50s
   F are supporting weak to moderate destabilization (500-1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE) despite only modest mid-level lapse rates. Observational
   trends and short-term forecast guidance suggest additional storm
   development and some intensification/growth into clusters is
   possible into this evening as storms move southeast off the higher
   terrain. The moderate buoyancy could support isolated hail while the
   relatively well-mixed low-levels may favor stronger downdrafts
   capable of occasional damaging gusts. However, with only modest
   deep-layer shear (20-25 kt) mostly displaced farther east, storm
   organization and longevity will likely be tied to the consolidation
   of individual outflows supporting more sustained clusters. While
   confidence is not overly high, short-term guidance suggests some
   intensification and a severe risk are possible this evening,
   especially across southeastern CO into northeast NM where storm
   coverage is greatest. Still, given the uncertainties associated with
   storm organization and the subsequent severe risk, a WW appears
   unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 07/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40110571 40620553 40440458 40000419 38930364 36210337
               35220404 35070489 35130535 35700560 37820546 40110571