Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1675

   Mesoscale Discussion 1675
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid and South-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...

   Valid 172357Z - 180200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds will continue across portions
   of the Mid and South-Atlantic for 2-3 more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Two linear clusters of thunderstorms continue to
   progress eastward this evening across eastern VA and MD. The most
   significant of these two was beginning to dive southward over far
   southeastern VA into far northern NC, where at least one bowing
   segment has been observed. This former area is characterized by a
   low-level moisture axis extending SSW to NNE, where estimated MLCAPE
   is still near 2500 J/kg. Although deep layer effective shear remains
   marginal over this region, slowly increasing moist southerly
   low-level flow near the aforementioned instability axis should
   continue to sustain updraft development along the convergence zone
   of this small linear complex through the evening hours. However,
   recent radar imagery indicates the outflow near the northeastern
   flank of this cluster is now well ahead of it, suggesting a
   weakening trend may be observed there soon.

   ..Barnes.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39577423 39637618 39067668 38587711 37897748 37587796
               37427854 37027904 36547929 36337944 36237914 36137845
               36157788 36237728 36257719 37587585 39577423