Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1675

   Mesoscale Discussion 1675
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 201948Z - 202145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms in north-central Iowa are becoming surface based.
   The environment is favorable for all severe hazards, including some
   significant. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon for portions
   of central Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery over the last half hour
   suggest storms are becoming surface based in north-central Iowa.
   Given the very unstable and strongly sheared environment to the
   south of these storms, storms will likely become severe this
   afternoon. The presence of a modifying outflow boundary will provide
   enhancement to low-level shear. Tornadoes, some potentially strong,
   will be possible. Large to very-large hail will also be a concern
   given the strong buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Severe
   wind gusts could remain isolated in the short term with a
   supercellular mode, but could become more prevalent with time as
   clustering occurs. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41609368 42419442 42999451 43339437 43499384 43429320
               42589229 42079212 41479223 41399268 41529331 41609368 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN