Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1673

   Mesoscale Discussion 1673
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far southern Virginia into much of
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201720Z - 201915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms may produce
   isolated damaging wind gusts through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Hot and humid conditions remain in place across much of
   North Carolina and portions of Virginia in the vicinity of a
   stationary surface front that extends roughly west-to-east across
   northern NC. As surface temperatures increase amid continued diurnal
   heating over the next couple of hours, scattered thunderstorm
   initiation is expected along the Blue Ridge, the surface front, and
   outflow/sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Similar to yesterday,
   an outflow-dominant storm mode is likely given that deep-layer flow
   remains fairly week. However, 20-25 kts of mid-level flow sampled by
   regional VWPs may aid in marginal storm organization across the
   region. In conjunction with steepening low-level lapse rates, a
   moderately to strongly unstable environment, and high PW, this will
   support a risk for water-loaded downbursts capable of occasionally
   damaging wind gusts. Locally greater potential may develop across
   portions of the NC Coastal Plain where the best overlap of
   thermodynamic parameters is expected. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time, but a targeted Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   could be considered should a corridor of greater severe potential
   become apparent.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36487682 36437642 36357581 36137556 35687532 35177544
               34757615 34487669 34407756 34417812 34637971 34908108
               35118156 35398199 35848218 36378216 36788188 37068145
               37188106 37258065 37258040 37218011 37087976 36837909
               36627844 36567781 36527732 36487682 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH