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| Mesoscale Discussion 1671 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Areas affected...Northern Virginia and Maryland Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553... Valid 172026Z - 172200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553 continues. SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat for WW 553 continues, with the primary threat being for thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased on the western periphery of the watch area, with current radar reflectivity showing some initial organization of convection into bowing segments. These thunderstorms are in an environment characterized by weak deep-layer vertical shear and only modest buoyancy, but steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer forecast profiles support the continued downward transport of momentum from thunderstorm downdrafts. The greatest threat for wind damage will be with any organized bowing segments, as well as where favorable thunderstorm outflow mergers occur. Additionally, short-term WoFS guidance suggests elevated probabilities of 50+ MPH wind gusts over the next several hours. This convective activity is expected to continue to progress eastward into Maryland this afternoon and into this evening, before eventually dying off as the nocturnal boundary-layer stabilizes. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37607926 38067899 38797855 39467815 39607756 39607681 39597631 39477595 39177580 38727587 38357609 38017641 37717679 37507717 37457748 37437807 37487873 37467915 37607926 |
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